Republican anti-Trump group targets swing states in $11.5m ad campaign – US elections live | US elections 2024

Ashley Kirk

But national polling is only part of the picture. Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election despite winning more votes than Donald Trump, because of the electoral system by which the president is elected.

The US presidential election is decided by races in individual states that have a set number of electoral college votes. This means the race is decided by a handful of swing states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.

Looking at data from RealClearPolitics, Kamala Harris has managed to at least close the gap on, if not overtake, Trump in the swing states. This is especially evident in Georgia and Arizona, where Harris has gained more than four points since Biden dropped out of the race.

Sitting ahead of Trump by a couple of points nationally is not enough to give Harris a secure lead in any of the swing states. Trump and Harris are still within two points of each other in seven swing states – well within the margin of error for polls.

Harris leading in polls but state-level data puts race on knife-edge

Ashley Kirk

National polls for the US presidential race have been upended ever since Kamala Harris took over from Joe Biden to run against Donald Trump.

While Biden was trailing the Republican former president nationally and in many crucial swing states, Harris has gained about three points in national polls since becoming the nominee.

The Guardian’s poll tracker assesses polls over a rolling 10-day period. It now has Harris leading nationally by about two points.

But when comparing this performance with previous elections, data from RealClearPolitics reveals Harris’s lead over Donald Trump is weaker than those of his previous opponents. Harris’s lead over Trump is weaker than those of his previous opponents. As of 30 August in their respective campaigns, Hillary Clinton led Trump by five points in 2016 and Joe Biden was ahead of him by 6.3 points in 2020.

Good morning US politics readers. With the general election just nine weeks away, a Republican anti-Donald Trump group is targeting disaffected Republicans and conservative-leaning independents in a new $11.5m ad campaign that will play in key battleground states.

The ad buy, by Republican Voters Against Trump, targets voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nebraska and features former Trump voters explaining why they plan to vote for Kamala Harris in November.

Over the last few weeks, the Harris campaign has zeroed in on courting Republican voters, and more than 200 former GOP staffers declared their endorsement of the Democratic presidential candidate in an open letter last week. The Harris campaign also launched “Republican Voters for Harris”, which included more than 25 endorsements, and several Republican speakers were featured at the Democratic national convention last month, including former congressman Adam Kinzinger, former Georgia Lt Gov Geoff Duncan, and former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham.

Here’s what else we’re watching:

• Kamala Harris is expected to unveil a series of economic proposals at a campaign event in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, this afternoon.

• Donald Trump will be in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, tonight for a town hall moderated by Fox News host Sean Hannity.

• Tim Walz will be in Pennsylvania today for campaign events in Lancaster and Pittsburgh.

• JD Vance will deliver campaign remarks in Mesa, Arizona, at an event hosted by the conservative group Turning Point Action.