Voters in Mozambique are set to head to the polls in an election that is almost certain to see the governing party Frelimo maintain its half-century grip on power, despite a stiff challenge from a charismatic newcomer.
Close to 17 million voters in the Southern African nation of 31 million people, are registered to vote on Wednesday for the next president along with 250 members of parliament and provincial assemblies.
President Filipe Nyusi from the Frelimo party, is stepping down after two terms and the party’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, is expected to replace him. Frelimo has governed Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975.
This time, independent candidate Venancio Mondlane has captured the support of disenchanted youth and poses the biggest threat to Frelimo in years, political analysts say.
He also poses a challenge to the official opposition party, Renamo, which was formerly a rebel movement waging a decades-long bush war against the government.
Whoever wins will face insecurity in the north that has halted multibillion-dollar gas projects and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
Main issues for leaders to address
Mozambique has been fighting an ISIL-affiliated group that has launched attacks on communities in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since 2017.
Approximately 600,000 of the 1.3 million people who fled have since returned home, many to shattered communities where houses, markets, churches, schools and health facilities have been destroyed, the United Nations said earlier this year.
The candidates have promised to address development issues exacerbated by the insecurity, including the halting of a crucial gas project by French energy company TotalEnergies in northern Mozambique as a result of the armed groups’ activities there.
“These areas where there is terrorism are an attack on all Mozambicans,” Chapo told a cheering rally of supporters in Maputo on Sunday, pledged to defend Mozambique’s “peace, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Mozambique also faces high levels of unemployment and hunger, exacerbated by El Nino-induced severe drought. According to the UN World Food Programme, 1.3 million people face severe food shortages.
Moreover, the country of 35 million people is emerging from an economic crisis caused in part by a hidden debt scandal, in which former finance minister Manuel Chang was jailed earlier this year for taking payoffs to arrange secret loan guarantees for government-controlled fishing companies.
The loans were plundered, and Mozambique ended up with $2bn in “hidden debt,” spurring a financial crisis as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) halted financial support.
Leaders have pledged to tackle the financial issues in their campaign messages.
The IMF said in July that Mozambique needed to manage its budget better to create space for social spending, given high debt levels.
Local elections held in Mozambique a year ago were marred by allegations of vote-rigging and fraud, sparking violent protests in the capital, Maputo, and surrounding areas.
If the results of the upcoming vote are disputed, activists and analysts expect protests, which in the past have been violently suppressed.
“We know that at the end, the status quo will remain,” Adriano Nuvunga, director of the local Centre for Democracy and Human Rights, told the Reuters news agency.
He said that Mondlane’s campaign was creating excitement and raising the risk of post-election unrest.
Official results will be announced by the National Election Commission after 15 days and subsequently validated by the Constitutional Council. Any party may file objections with the council, which will decide whether they have merit.