Cleverly eliminated in shock result, and Badenoch and Jenrick are in the final ballot for Tory leader

Here are the results.

Kemi Badenoch: 42

Robert Jenrick: 41

James Cleverly: 37

That is a massive surprise.

Key events

All the commentators (including me) have been confounded. James Cleverly seemed a dead cert to get through, but he is out.

The immediate assumption is that MPs who wanted Cleverly have been too clever by half, switching votes thinking he was safe.

Here are the figures again, with the changes from yesterday.

Kemi Badenoch: 42 (up 12 from yesterday, when she was up 2 from the previous round)

Robert Jenrick: 41 (up 10 from yesterday, when he was down 2 from the previous round)

James Cleverly: 37 (down 2 from yesterday, when he was up 18 from the previous round)

Cleverly eliminated in shock result, and Badenoch and Jenrick are in the final ballot for Tory leader

Here are the results.

Kemi Badenoch: 42

Robert Jenrick: 41

James Cleverly: 37

That is a massive surprise.

Bob Blackman, chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, is due to announce the results of the leadership ballot in about five minutes.

What happens if there’s a draw in Tory leadership ballot?

A reader asks:

@Andrew – what happens if two of the leadership contenders get the same number of votes – coin toss, paper/scissors/stones or pistols at dawn?

Probably what happened last time. This happened in 2001, when the late Michael Ancram and David Davis were tied in last place. There was no provision in the rules for what should happen, and so Michael Spicer, the 1922 Committee chair, ordered a rerun the following day, with the proviso that both candidates would drop out if they were tied again. But on the second vote Ancram was eliminated.

The Times today is reporting that ministers are considering what it describes as an “HS2 light” rail line between Birmingham and Manchester, replacing the original HS2 planned for that stretch but cancelled by Rishi Sunak.

In their report, Oliver Wright, Ben Clatworthy and Steven Swinford say this would involve a new stretch of track runnng between Birmingham and Crewe, where trains would run faster than the current West Coast mainline, but slower than HS2. They report:

Supporters of the plan for a new line beyond Birmingham believe it would be up to 40 per cent cheaper to build than the previous HS2 link between the city and Manchester.

Senior government figures said that a final decision would have to wait for the government’s three-year spending review due in the spring.

But they said there was “little option” but to push ahead with a version of the scheme because of a “capacity crunch” on the main West Coast mainline when HS2 starts running in the early 2030s.

This is because under current plans HS2 trains will move on existing tracks after Birmingham but will have a smaller passenger numbers than the Pendolino trains that operate on the service.

Asked about the report at the post-PMQs lobby briefing, a No 10 spokesperson said: “We are reviewing the position we have inherited on HS2, and we will set out further decisions and plans on that in due course.”

Jeremy Hunt, the shadow chancellor, has urged the government to “be honest” about its budget plans. Speaking about Keir Starmer’s comments at PMQs (see 2.13pm), he said:

The prime minister has today left the door open to the Labour Party breaking their promises to the British people by raising taxes and increasing borrowing, leaving future generations to pick up the bill and risking higher interest rates.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves should have had the courage and conviction to be honest about the tax and borrowing plans they always planned.

Gus O’Donnell, a former cabinet secretary, has said he thinks there are not enough “policy heavyweights” working in No 10. Speaking on the World at One, where he was asked about the departure of Sue Gray as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, O’Donnell said:

This is I think a loss all round. It’s a loss for Sue Gray, of her job, and it’s a loss for the government in her abilities.”

I do think there is a need for Number 10 to have a lot more heavyweights in there – policy heavyweights. I remember during Gordon Brown’s era there being very senior members of the policy unit – people like David Miliband, Geoff Mulgan, Andrew Adonis. They’re not there at the minute, and I think that is a shortfall.

SNP claims Council of Nations and Regions will be ‘insult’ to Scotland because Scottish mayors excluded

On Friday Keir Starmer is due to host the first meeting of his Council of Nations and Regions in Scotland. But the SNP are claiming it will be an “insult” to Scotland because English mayors have been invited, but not Scottish ones. In a statement issued by the SNP, the MSP Bob Doris says:

There is no excuse for Keir Starmer excluding the leaders of Scotland’s cities from a forum which is designed to boost intergovernmental cooperation which their counterparts in England will attend …

Hosting this meeting on a day trip to Scotland but choosing to snub our local leaders while inviting leaders in England is not just an insult – it is yet another gaffe from a prime minister who is stumbling from mistake to mistake and increasingly looks like he doesn’t know what he is doing.

The House of Commons during PMQs today Photograph: House of Commons

Starmer refuses to rule out raising employers’ national insurance and changing borrowing rules in budget

Here is the PA Media story from PMQs.

Keir Starmer has been accused of considering raising employer national insurance contributions and changing borrowing rules after he failed to rule out either proposal.

The prime minister was repeatedly urged by Conservative party leader Rishi Sunak to clarify his position amid reports that chancellor Rachel Reeves is eyeing up ways to unlock billions of pounds for additional spending.

After Starmer said he would not be drawn on such matters ahead of the budget on October 30, Sunak claimed his successor in Downing Street had “opened the door” to raising employer national insurance including on pensions and “fiddling the figures” to ensure more can be borrowed.

At the general election, Labour said it would not increase taxes on working people and included a commitment not to increase national insurance, income tax or VAT.

The party also outlined its fiscal rules to ensure it balanced day-to-day costs with revenues and getting debt falling as a share of the economy by the fifth year of forecasts.

Reports have suggested Reeves has been considering whether to use a different debt measure to the one she inherited from the previous Tory government.

Speaking at PMQs Sunak mocked Starmer over the ousting of Sue Gray as his chief of staff before switching attention to the economy.

The former prime minister said: “I know that not everything or everyone has survived his first 100 days in government, so can he confirm that when he promised not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, that commitment applies to both employer and employee national insurance contributions?”

Starmer replied: “We made an absolute commitment in relation to not raising tax on working people. He, of course, was the expert’s expert on raising taxes. What did we get in return for it? We got a broken economy, broken public services, and a £22bn black hole in the economy. We’re here to stabilise the economy, and we will do so.”

Sunak said he did not think Labour donor Lord Waheed Alli was “buying any of that nonsense”, adding: “I’m not asking about the budget, I’m asking specifically about the promise he made to the British people.

“So let me ask him again, just to clarify his own promise. Does his commitment not to raise national insurance apply to both employee and employer national insurance contributions?”

Starmer replied: “We set out our promises in our manifesto. We were returned with a huge majority to change the country for the better, and I stick to my promises in the manifesto.”

Turning attention to fiscal rules, Sunak said: “Before the election his chancellor said changing the debt target in the fiscal rules would be tantamount to fiddling the figures. Does he still agree with the chancellor?”

Starmer said: “This is literally the man who was in charge of the economy, 14 years they’ve crashed the economy. What did they leave? A £22bn black hole in the economy. Unlike them we won’t walk past it. We will fix it. And it’s only because we are stabilising the economy that we are getting the investment into this country.”

John Woodcock still in place as independent adviser on political violence, No 10 says, after reports said he was out

Yesterday Byline Times reported, on the basis of a briefing from the Home Office, that John Woodcock (Lord Walney) was no longer in post as the government’s independent adviser on political violence and disruption. But Woodcock, a former Labour MP who published a report recommending sweeping, and even draconian restrictions on protests, seems to have had a reprieve. At the post-PMQs lobby briefing a No 10 spokesperson said he remains in place for now. The spokesperson went on:

The home secretary is reviewing the landscape in relation to our approach to counter extremism, and that work will consider the role in the round as part of part of the government’s approach to counter extremism.

PMQs – snap verdict

In his final months as prime minister, PMQs was a terrible ordeal for Rishi Sunak, and there were not many occasions where he made the weather. But today, unburdened by the need to defend the record of the Conservative party in government, and able to deploy the standard PMQs technique of answering a question to which the PM either can’t or won’t reply, he had a successful outing. He mostly challenged Keir Starmer on two issues – employers’ national insurance contributions, and fiscal rules – and came away with evasive non-answers that were strong enough to make news.

Of the two topics, national insurance is probably more significant. There has already been ample talk of the government using the budget to change the definition of debt it uses for its debt target – as Kiran Stacey reports, Rachel Reeves raised this at cabinet this week – and Starmer’s wriggling on this issue was more a confirmation of what we expect than anything very surprising. But his national insurance answer will attract a lot more attention, particularly from the Tory papers. As Sunak pointed out, Labour never quite clarified during the election campaign what not raising taxes for “working people” meant, and if Reeves needs to raise significant money in the budget, employers’ NICs must be a potential target.

That said, the exchanges were all relatively low-energy, and neither Sunak nor Starmer seemed very interested in treating PMQs as a gladiatorial contest. Sunak, of course, is on his way out, and he seemed preoccupied with proving that he was right all along during the election campaign when he warned about Labour raising taxes – ie in winning an argument about the past, not the future.

And Starmer seems to have almost zero interest in the yah-boo, performative side of PMQs. He was not very compelling in the chamber today, but his authority remained intact and his MPs did not seem to mind. Against another opposition leader, his lack of interest in jokes and clever put-downs might be a problem for him. But it wasn’t today.

And I have beefed up the post at 12.10pm with the Sunak/Starmer exchanges about the fiscal rules. Again, you may have to refresh the page for the update to appear.

I have beefed up the post at 12.08pm with the full quotes from the exchange about national insurance. You may need to refresh the page to get the update to appear.

And this is from my colleague Kiran Stacey on the topic.

Interesting question from Sunak to Starmer on whether he wants to levy national insurance on employers’ pension contributions. The PM doesn’t knock down the idea, and this is what the IFS says about it. pic.twitter.com/zc1sQ74wx7

— Kiran Stacey (@kiranstacey) October 9, 2024

Dawn Butler (Lab) asks about Black History Month. She says she is going to a Temptations event organised by the Speaker to mark this. Will the Commons hold a debate on this?

Starmer says he probably should not be going to an event called Temptations at the moment. But he says he is glad Butler is coming to the Black History Month reception at No 10 tonight he is hosting.

And that was the last question.



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