Reeves’s long-term spending figures almost as unrealistic as Tories’ were, IFS says – UK politics live | Politics

In an interview with the Today programme this morning, Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, suggested that Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, could end up having to raise more in tax in future budgets because she left herself so little headroom in her figures.

Asked if there was a risk of the chancellor needing to “come back for more”, he replied:

The chancellor has changed the fiscal rules in this budget, but she’s kept the practice of her predecessors in setting aside very little headroom, very little margin for manoeuvre against those rules.

She’s just got £10bn pounds worth of headroom against her target to balance the current budget, £16bn pounds against getting net financial liabilities falling. These are about a third of what her predecessors have set aside against their rules. It’s a tiny fraction of the changes to our borrowing forecasts over a five-year horizon.

Small changes in interest rates, smaller than ones we even saw in terms of the changes in interest rates between the March budget and this budget, would be enough to eliminate that kind of headroom.

Asked again if that meant Reeves would have to come back for more tax revenue, Hughes replied:

There are always risks to the outlook. Chancellors have to set their fiscal policy in light of those risks. This chancellor has set aside very little margin for manoeuvre against the target she has set for herself.

Yesterday the Office for Budget Responsibility said that the measures in the budget would boost growth in the short term, but that after five years they would not be making any difference.

Asked about this forecast, in an interview with the BBC Keir Starmer said that he wanted to do “better than that” and that the budget was just the “first step”. He said other policies, like planning reform and deregulation, would “help towards growth”.

More than 13,000 prisoners in England and Wales were released early under a scheme introduced by the previous Conservative government, PA Media reports. PA says:

The move is likely to have contributed to a sharp rise this year in the number of offenders recalled to custody for breaching the conditions of their release.

Some 13,325 prisoners were released early between October 17 2023 and September 9 2024, according to data published by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).

The scheme, known as End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL), continued for a few months after the Conservatives lost the general election in July this year, until it was superseded in September by a separate early-release programme introduced by the new Labour government.

Just over a quarter (26%) of those released under the ECSL scheme had been found guilty of an offence classed as violence against the person, a similar proportion (26%) had been convicted of a theft offence, while nearly one in seven (15%) had been jailed for drug offences.

No prisoners serving time for a sexual offence were released.

The scheme initially allowed prisoners in certain jails to be released a maximum of 18 days early, but this was increased in March 2024 to a maximum of 35 days, then again in May to a maximum of 70 days.

Separate figures published today show there were 9,782 recalls to custody in April to June 2024 of offenders who had breached the conditions of their release, up 44% from 6,814 in the equivalent period in 2023.

John Swinney says Treasury should fully compensate Scottish government for £500m cost of national insurance hike

Severin Carrell

John Swinney, the first minister, has urged the Treasury to fully compensate the Scottish government for the expected loss of £500m to its budget from the hike in national insurance (NI) payments by employers.

Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, appears to have been wrongfooted by the impact her decision to increase NI rates for employers will have on the already stretched finances of Scotland’s public sector, which is larger than England’s.

The Scottish government estimates Scotland’s health service, schools, police, courts and other public services will have to spend £500m extra – money which will now flow to the HM Revenue and Customs in London.

Scotland’s public sector employs around 600,000 people, 22% of the national workforce, compared to 17% across the UK as a whole.

Swinney told Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, during first minister’s questions he broadly welcomed Reeves’ budget. It adds £3.4bn to his spending next year, while the extra money this year will help the Scottish government meet the soaring costs of its public sector pay deals and inflation.

But the NI anomaly needed to be addressed, he added, before the Scottish budget is published on 4 December. He said:

There remains significant uncertainty about the impact of the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions on public spending in Scotland [and] whether our finances will be compensated in full for all that’s involved.

That of course is not an insignificant sum, it’s £500m.

Reeves was pressed about this on BBC Radio Scotland on Thursday morning, and appeared to suggest that no additional money would be provided. “We’ve given £3.4bn in the settlement to Scotland, which takes into account all of those pressures,” she said. “The challenge now for the SNP in Scotland is to use that money wisely.” (See 9.35am.)

However, other UK government sources have said extra money would be given to Scotland to cover those costs, but were not clear how much. Scottish ministers fear the Treasury will give them a flat rate population-based share of those extra NI receipts, without recognising Scotland’s larger public sector.

Keir Starmer ended his Q&A with health workers at at University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire by urging them to contribute to the public consultation on the future of the NHS. Being able to tell the government what they thought was a right, not a gift, he said.

After the election I stood outside Downing Street and said we’d be a government of service. And that means that we’re a government which is in your service.

So the opportunity to talk to us, that’s not a great gift that we’re giving you this morning. That’s actually your right. You have every right to tell me and Rachel [Reeves] what you think. You’ve every right to be heard on this.

Starmer also said, if people had any points they wanted to raise that they had not done already, they should do so via the members of his team there organising the event. He went on:

I’m one of these people that, on the train on the way home, ruminate about what people have said to me and think about it. So it really is impactful if you do that.

So you have the right to tell us what you think. You’ve got the right to put your fingerprints on the future of your country. Please exercise that right.

Back at the hospital event, Keir Starmer was asked about an NHS worker what Labour would do to promote more collaborative working in the health service.

Starmer said it was important to create an environment where staff felt valued. He went on:

But I also want to be honest with you; we are going to be asking more of you.

There’s no point me standing here and saying, your workload will go down. The whole point is, people are living longer. They’ve got more conditions. What the NHS is facing now is different to what it was facing in the post war period. Your workload is likely to go up, not down.

Now, in a way, that is a good thing, because we’re living longer. We shouldn’t see that as a bad thing, but it does make your life more complicated.

So are we making a bigger ask of you? Yes. Are we going to help you? Therefore, yes.

As examples of what government might do to help, Starmer said it would make sure they had the right number of trained staff, and that AI and technology was used properly. He said patients were fed up of the fact that it is not always easy for doctors to access their notes.

There would also be more focus on preventative health, he said. He went on:

So you’re doing more, but actually the pressure will come off if we do it in the way that we need to do it.

Ofcom said it has imposed a £100,000 fine on GB News for “breaking due impartiality rules” following a question and answer-style debate with former prime minister Rishi Sunak earlier this year, PA Media reports. PA says:

The media watchdog began an investigation into GB News three days after the airing of a programme on February 12 titled People’s Forum: The prime minister, which saw Sunak answer questions from a studio audience and a presenter.

GB News chief executive Angelos Frangopoulos said the channel is challenging the “unnecessary, unfair and unlawful” Ofcom ruling in the courts.

In a statement, Ofcom said Sunak “had a mostly uncontested platform to promote the policies and performance of his government in a period preceding a UK general election, in breach of Rules 5.11 and 5.12 of the Broadcasting Code”.

“Given the seriousness and repeated nature of this breach, Ofcom has imposed a financial penalty of £100,000 on GB News Limited,” it added.

“We have also directed GB News to broadcast a statement of our findings against it, on a date and in a form determined by us.

“GB News is challenging our original breach decision in this case by judicial review, which we are defending. Ofcom will not enforce this sanction decision until those proceedings are concluded.”

The rules state that “due impartiality must be preserved on matters of major political and industrial controversy” and “an appropriately wide range of significant views” should be included.