Like other Democratic Senate candidates running in key presidential swing states, Casey touted his moderate, even Trump-aligned, credentials on the campaign trail and has outperformed Harris (as well as other Democrats in statewide races). But he could be the only one of those swing-state Democratic candidates to lose. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan have both been projected to win their races in states that Trump carried. Meanwhile, Sen. Jacky Rosen and Rep. Ruben Gallego are also holding onto leads in the U.S. Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, respectively, despite Trump leading in both states.
In some cases, it may be more accurate to say that Republican candidates underperformed Trump, more than Democrats overperformed Harris. For example, in Pennsylvania, Harris is netting around 36,000 more votes than Casey, while Trump has over 140,000 more votes than McCormick — that means Trump voters weren’t necessarily splitting their tickets to support Casey, but sitting out the downballot races completely. Much will surely be said in coming days and weeks about this ticket-splitting and what it may mean for both parties’ strategies going forward.